Bo Ryan and John Calipari held a joint press conference on Thursday at Lucas Oil Stadium. (Elliott Hess, UK Athletics)

INDIANAPOLIS – Through all the tests Kentucky has faced this season, one team has always loomed more than any other.As the Wildcats have piled up victory after victory, Wisconsin has been talked about as the team best suited to take them down.Two days before UK and Wisconsin finally face off, John Calipari can see why.”I mean, they do what they’re supposed to do,” Calipari said. “They give you a tough look. They rebound the ball. They’re outstanding. This will be a really hard game for our team. We know that. Bo (Ryan) has done what he’s done with every team: He’s just made them a cohesive offensive and defensive unit.”The Badgers pass Coach Cal’s eye test and the numbers back him up. UK-Wisconsin is a matchup of the teams rated No. 1 and No. 3 according to kenpom.com and the Badgers took down No. 2 Arizona on Sunday.Let’s dig into the numbers behind those rankings, numbers that have a lot to say about which team will win the right to play for the national championship.When Kentucky is on offenseKentucky’s offense has been overshadowed by its historically good defense, but the Cats can really score the ball. Wisconsin’s head coach has noticed, and it’s a lot about UK’s depth.”Even if there’s a guy that shoots a bad percentage or has a rough day, look how many other guys can pick them up,” Ryan said. “There are some teams who have two, three, maybe four scorers. If they all have a bad day the same day, they’re definitely losing. Kentucky can have guys have bad days but still have enough guys to make up for that.”Six Cats are used on between 20 and 24 percent of UK’s possessions, and they all have individual offensive ratings of better than 109. Perhaps most incredibly, Kentucky’s consensus first-team All-American, Willie Cauley-Stein, isn’t among them. He’s used on just 18.6 percent of possessions for which he’s on the floor.Against Wisconsin – the nation’s 54th-ranked defense, according to kenpom.com – UK will face a unique test, notably because the teams will match strengths in a couple notable areas.UK has the fifth-most efficient offense in America thanks in large part to its ability to attack the offensive glass and get to the free-throw line. The Cats rank sixth nationally in offensive-rebounding percentage (0.399) and 25th in free-throw rate (44.5). Wisconsin, meanwhile, is fourth in defensive-rebounding percentage (0.741) and first in defensive free-throw rate (22.1). Which team wins these two battles is anyone’s guess.UK and Wisconsin are also evenly matched in effective field-goal percentage, the Cats ranking 75th on offense and the Badgers 99th on defense. Interestingly, the Badgers struggle guarding the 3-point line. Wisconsin is 301st in 3-point percentage defense (0.374), but allows 3-point attempts so infrequently (only 26.3 percent of opponents’ shots come from 3) that it doesn’t often hurt the Badgers.Where UK figures to get a boost is in the turnover department. The Badgers never sell out to force miscues and their opponents commit turnovers on just 16.1 percent of possessions (327th nationally). The Cats, by contrast, take care of the ball effectively and rank 36th in turnover percentage (0.164). In last year’s national semifinal, UK had just four turnovers.When Kentucky is on defenseSpeaking of matching strengths, how about the best offense in the country against the best defense in the country?Wisconsin is the only team with an offense rated better by kenpom.com than Notre Dame, which just scored more points per possession than any UK opponent this season.”Well, they’re outstanding,” Calipari said. “We just played a great offensive team in Notre Dame. This team rivals and maybe surpasses because they can iso you in the post.”Cauley-Stein is similarly impressed.”Us watching film, they run angles a lot,” he said. “One of our biggest things in the Notre Dame game was giving up backdoors, easy baskets. They utilized that. They kind of pride themselves on, you know, exploiting people’s weakness and taking over from it. So that’s our biggest thing is not giving up easy baskets, not letting them play angles against us.”The Badgers’ top threat is Frank Kaminsky, the versatile 7-footer who scores inside and out. Thanks in large part to him, Wisconsin is 16th nationally in effective field-goal percentage (0.55) and facing the best effective field-goal percentage defense in Kentucky, which holds opponents to 0.392. Wisconsin’s greatest strength is its ability to take care of the basketball. The Badgers, steadied by point guard Bronson Koenig, commit turnovers on just 12.3 percent of their possessions, the best mark in the country. They haven’t committed double-digit turnovers since Dec. 13, meaning even UK’s disruptive defense isn’t likely to cause too many errors.In short, expect Wisconsin to shoot the ball relatively well and commit few turnovers. UK could make up for that at the free-throw line, because the Cats are 55th in defensive free-throw rate and the Badgers are 181st in offensive free-throw rate.Where the game could be decided, however, is on the glass when Wisconsin does miss. The Badgers are middle of the pack in offensive-rebounding percentage (129th), while UK is below average in defensive-rebounding percentage (204th). If the Cats can perform better than they typically have in this area, they will gain an edge.Bottom lineOne thing that’s close to a certainty is that Saturday’s game will not be an up-tempo affair. UK ranks 250th in adjusted tempo, Wisconsin 345th. The Cats have thrived this season in up-and-down games, but they’ve handled grind-it-out affairs just fine too. At the end of the day, they’re just going to play their game.”We’re not going to control what Wisconsin does,” Calipari said. “They’re going to play the way they play. I just hope my team plays well. I think if you talk to all four coaches, when you say, ‘We’re stopping Wisconsin.’ We’re not stopping Wisconsin. I just hope my team plays well and then we’ll see how it plays out.”

Related Stories

View all