Battle of the Wildcats: Breaking Down UK-K-State
Few expected this matchup, but here we are: Fifth-seeded Kentucky and No. 9 seed Kansas State will face off with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.
The game is a rematch of a 2014 round-of-64 matchup between UK and Kansas State, when the Wildcats from Lexington, Kentucky, downed the ones from Manhattan, Kansas, to start a memorable tournament run. UK also boasts a 9-0 all-time record against Kansas State, as well as a 6-0 mark in Sweet 16 games under John Calipari.
That history will matter little when the two sets of Wildcats tip off at approximately 9:37 p.m. ET on Thursday at Atlanta’s Philips Arena. With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the numbers suggest we can expect.
When Kentucky is on offense
Talk about an even matchup.
Kentucky’s offense and Kansas State’s defense are ranked an identical 20th nationally in adjusted efficiency according to kenpom.com. The interesting thing about that, however, is that UK’s strengths matchup with K-State’s weaknesses, and vice versa.
Kentucky, with its length and athleticism, is undisputedly one of the best offensive-rebounding teams in the country, ranking eighth in offensive-rebounding percentage (35.6 percent). Wenyen Gabriel, PJ Washington, Sacha Killeya-Jones, Nick Richards, and especially Jarred Vanderbilt, when he’s healthy, excel at creating second chances on offense.
Kansas State, meanwhile, struggles to protect the defensive glass, allowing opponents to rebound 32.0 percent of their misses. That percentage ranks 307th nationally and worst among the 16 teams still left in the field. On 18 occasions this season, Kansas State has allowed an opponent to rebound at least one-third of its misses. Needless to say, UK will need to capitalize on this relative advantage for its best chance of success.
Similarly, the free-throw line offers opportunity for UK. Kentucky attempts a free throw for every 2.3 field-goal tries, the seventh-best rate in the country. Kansas State, on the other hand, allows a free-throw attempt for every 2.8 field-goal tries for its opponents. That figure is 231st nationally and third worst among remaining NCAA Tournament teams.
Where Kansas State has a statistical advantage is in field-goal defense. While UK’s effective field-goal percentage on the season is 0.520 (128th nationally), Kansas State’s effective field-goal percentage defense is 0.489 (69th nationally). The 3-point line should be particularly interesting, as Kansas State is both effective guarding the 3 (32.8 percent; 46th nationally) and forces opponents to take a bunch of them (40.2 percent of opponents’ field-goal attempts are 3). UK is shooting a slightly above average 36 percent from 3 on the season (111th nationally), but just 25.8 percent of its field-goal attempts are 3s. Only seven teams in the country shoot 3s less frequently and no one still in the tournament is particularly close.
Perhaps most concerning for UK on offense are turnovers. Kentucky has been decidedly average on the season taking care of the ball (turnovers on 18.5 percent of possessions; 174th nationally), though UK has been below that number in every game of both the SEC and NCAA tournaments so far. Kansas State will be looking to put that streak to an end with its defense that forces turnovers on 21.5 percent of opponents’ possessions (24th nationally). Kansas State also comes up with steals on 11.8 percent of its defensive possessions (fourth best nationally), leading to easy opportunities on the other end.
When UK is on defense
UK has the nation’s 24th-ranked defense according to kenpom.com, while Kansas State’s offense is ranked No. 74.
The strength of UK’s defense in its ability to force opponents to take and miss 3-pointers, fueling the nation’s 18th-ranked effective field-goal percentage defense. UK is second in the country in 3-point defense at 29.8 percent and 42.6 percent of opponents field-goal attempts come from behind the arc, 40th highest in the country.
Interestingly, Kansas State far prefers shots inside the paint and is much more effective there. Just 36.6 percent of K-State’s field-goal tries come from beyond the arc and the Wildcats shoot just 34.3 percent from there, good for 209th in the country. By contrast, Kansas State shoots 54.3 percent from 2-point range, 36th in the nation. If UK can force Kansas State into more 3-point shots than normal, the advantage, on paper, swings to Coach Cal’s Cats. If the opposite happens, Bruce Weber’s Cats have an edge.
Kentucky has never relied heavily on forcing turnovers for defensive success, ranking 267th in the country in defensive turnover percentage, and that figures to continue Thursday. Kansas State is above average taking care of the ball, committing turnovers on 17.4 percent of its possessions.
Statistically speaking, the battle on the boards when K-State misses projects to be a war of attrition. UK has struggled protecting its defensive glass this season, allowing offensive rebounds on 31 percent of opponents’ misses. Similarly, Kansas State has done little damage on the offensive glass, ranking 266th nationally with a defensive-rebounding percentage of 0.258.
Style of play
Kansas State prefers a slower pace of play than Kentucky, with an adjusted tempo of 65.5 (303rd in the country) compared to 68.8 for UK (138th in the country). That figures to lead to long possessions for Kansas State – save for occasions when UK turns the ball over – which will be comfortable for both teams. Kansas State’s average possession on offense lasts 17.8 seconds, while UK’s defensive possessions last an almost identical 17.7 seconds.
UK’s offensive possessions could be a little more interesting. Coach Cal’s Cats are not afraid to take a quality shot early in possessions, which is why UK’s possessions last an average of just 16.9 seconds. Kansas State will be looking to prevent that at all costs considering its average defensive possessions last nearly a second and a half longer at 18.2 seconds.
Week No. 2 of #MarchMadness starts now. #Sweet16
A post shared by Kentucky Men’s Basketball (@kentuckymbb) on Mar 20, 2018 at 5:40pm PDT
