Cats Hoping for Breakthrough Against Arkansas
Kentucky has now lost three games in a row but it’s not like the Cats have not been close. In each of the last three games, against arguably the best three teams in the Southeastern Conference, Kentucky has either had the lead or been within a possession of the lead in the second half of each contest.
However, it’s at those points that the team’s youth seems to rear its ugly head. The Cats have been prone to mistakes on both ends of the floor, including defensive lapses, turnovers and other costly mistakes.
Kentucky head coach John Calipari and his staff continue to explore why this is happening with this particular team. Assistant coach Joel Justus thinks part of the issue could be that players are trying to make plays individually rather than collectively.
“I don’t know that I would say that it was like hero ball,” Justus said. “I think it’s more of a, you know, with this group its they do want to win. They want to do well. The way that some inexperienced guys think is, ‘Well, I want to win so I can go make this play. I’m a good player. I have confidence. I want to go make this play.’ I don’t think that’s a hero or a necessarily selfish (play), I think it’s them not knowing or not understanding at this point in their career or being able to have done that in the past.”
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| Kentucky vs. Arkansas | ||
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Tue., Feb. 8 – 7 p.m. ET |
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TV: ESPN |
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| UK | Stats | UA |
| 5-12 | Record | 14-5 |
| 4-6 | Conference Record | 6-4 |
| 67.8 | PPG | 82.7 |
| 69.5 | Opp PPG | 69.4 |
| .416 | FG% | .451 |
| .408 | Opp FG% | .416 |
| 38.9 | RPG | 41.3 |
| .298 | 3PT FG% | .337 |
| .308 | Opp 3PT FG% | .303 |
| 11.4 | APG | 14.9 |
| 6.5 | SPG | 8.4 |
| 6.1 | BPG | 5.1 |
This happens because those players have always been able to make those winning plays when playing high school or AAU basketball. Justus and the staff continue to emphasize that, at the college level, it’s literally a whole new ball game.
“When you are the best player on the floor by far in your high school or your grassroots team, you can just put your head down and go make a play,” Justus said. “Now there’s better coaching, there’s other really good players on the floor. It’s going to take a team effort, you know, at times. Sometimes that’s shooting, sometimes that’s creating, other times that’s being in help-side defense and not saying, ‘Well, my man’s not going to score right now. I’m going to help you or I’m going to do something to help the team.’ That’s really something that we’re focusing in on now.”
The mood of the team after three consecutive losses is what most people would expect.
“I think there is obviously some frustration,” Justus said. “There is disappointment because they don’t like to lose. I think that would be from top to bottom is a group of guys that are working hard. They’re trying hard, they’re listening. We just need some success.”
The Cats continue to try to get over the hump, something that Justus thinks would be huge for this team.
“We need just need a little bit of that breakthrough,” Justus said. “We need a little bit of luck. We need a little bit of everything to kind of break through at this point.”
The Cats will hope that the breakthrough can come as they take on Arkansas on Tuesday night at Rupp Arena. Justus knows that Arkansas is surging lately.
“They’re a team that’s obviously playing better,” Justus said. “They’ve got an exciting style of play. They’re mixing games a little bit with some of their defenses. There getting some of their younger guys, not even their younger guys, more guys who maybe weren’t even playing earlier in the year that have stepped up.”
While certainly focusing on Arkansas, Kentucky is also focusing on itself in preparation for Tuesday’s contest.
“We’re trying to, like I said, get these young people to achieve their dreams, to achieve success, and I think that will happen,” Justus said. “Whether that happens today or tomorrow or Saturday or whenever, I think this is a group of people determined to get better and to do it sooner rather than later.”
Up Next: Fifth Straight Top-40 Opponent
With all of the struggles this Kentucky team has faced this season, playing one of the nation’s most difficult schedules hasn’t provided any relief, especially as of late.
UK is in the midst of its toughest stretch yet. On Tuesday vs. Arkansas, Kentucky will take on its fifth straight opponent ranked in the top 40 of the NCAA Evaluation Tool rankings at the time of the game (LSU, Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas).
Arkansas enters the game 14-5, but of particular concern for the Wildcats is how the Razorbacks have played of late. After losing four of five games early in league play, Arkansas has found its stride again and won four of five games, including three by 15 or more.
The Razorbacks are getting the job done with balance.
Arkansas averages an impressive 82.7 points per game with five players in double figures, but the Hogs also get after it defensively. Through games on Feb. 6, they ranked 20th in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency ratings, and Arkansas has held two of its last three opponents to less than 60 points, including just 45 vs. Mississippi State.
Arkansas is led by Moses Moody, who averages 16.4 points per game. JD Notae pitches in with 13.7 points, and Justin Smith is tallying 11.3 points and a team-best 6.7 boards per contest.
Defense!
Although Kentucky’s record may not reflect it, UK’s defense this season has been very good. The Wildcats are yielding 69.5 points per game, 40.8% shooting by the opposition overall and 30.8% from behind the arc, while averaging 6.1 blocks and 6.5 steals per game.
Through games on Feb. 6, Kentucky ranked 19th nationally in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com. KenPom.com also rates UK’s effective field-goal percentage defense (46.1%) and block percentage (15.4%) among the top 50 in the nation. Kentucky has yielded more than 1.0 points per possession in just six games.
Five times this season, Kentucky has lost despite holding teams to 66 points or fewer. Under John Calipari, that had only occurred 13 times in 407 games prior to this season — essentially occurring once every 31 games under his direction.
UK is 206-24 under Calipari when holding the opposition to 40% or less from the field but only 4-5 this season. The Wildcats have held six of their last eight opponents to less than 40% from the floor.
The Rule of 76?
With the way the defense has played this season, Kentucky doesn’t have to be great offensively to win. It just can’t be poor.
UK is 5-0 this season when scoring at least 76 points but 0-12 when scoring 75 or fewer.
In a bit of a statistical oddity, the Wildcats had not scored between 66 and 75 points until scoring 70 and 71 in back-to-back games at No. 18/16 Missouri and against No. 11/10 Tennessee last week, both losses.
Mixing and Matching
Through 17 games this season, Kentucky has used seven different starting lineups. John Calipari has continually shaken up the lineup to try and find the right combination of players who play well together and give the Wildcats the best chance at a good start, as well as finding the lineup that finishes games. The most lineups UK has ever started under Calipari has been 10 in both 2019-20 and 2015-16.
According to KenPom.com, UK’s minutes continuity at 5.7% is the worst in the country. Part of that can be attributed to Keion Brooks Jr. missing the first nine games of the season, as well as Terrence Clarke’s absence over the last 10 games. Both players have averaged more than 24.0 minutes per game when available.
During Calipari’s tenure, eight of his teams have ranged from 21.8% continuity to the highest at 49.6% during the 2014-15 season. This season’s rate is currently the lowest in Calipari’s 12 seasons, with the 2012-13 team owning the previous low mark at 5.9%.
