ST. LOUIS — As it happens so often for John Calipari’s Kentucky team, the narrative entering the Wildcats’ round-of-32 matchup with Wichita State is based on contrast.In one corner there’s UK, the uber-talented and uber-athletic group of freshmen and sophomores. In the other there’s Wichita State, the outsized and under-recruited group of veterans with experience and cohesiveness on their side.But for all the (oftentimes overplayed) differences, there’s one thing the two teams unquestionably have in common: mutual respect. “They play really hard,” John Calipari said. “They have really good players. You don’t go 35 or 36-0 or whatever they are without having really good players. And they have really good players. And they play hard and compete.”Coach Cal’s Wichita State counterpart had a similarly glowing review on the eve of the matchup between his top-seeded Shockers (35-0) and Kentucky (25-10).”With Kentucky you have not only a great style of play, but you have seven McDonald’s All-Americans,” head coach Gregg Marshall said. “You have guys that will play at the highest level very soon. I don’t know how long; I am sure Cal would like to keep a couple of them around. But you have some of the best athletes at their age in the world.”Not only are the Shockers familiar with the Cats, they also know the history of the Kentucky program well. Marshall, for instance, named four of the five leading scorers from UK’s 1978 national-title team off hand — Jack Givens, Rick Robey, Kyle Macy and Mike Phillips.”One of the storied programs in the history of college basketball,” Marshall said. “Eight national championships and preseason No. 1. So certainly our guys are excited for this challenge and they are ready to go.”Ron Baker won’t be teaching any history lessons like his coach probably could, but he has family in the Kentucky area and even a father who is a fan.”When you hear ‘Kentucky,’ you think of basketball,” the sophomore guard said.Wichita State has a history of its own, including Final Four appearances in 1965 and 2013. All of the Shockers’ major contributors this season were on that 2013 team that took eventual national champion Louisville to the wire.”They’ve been there for three to four years so they know their coaching staff and they’ve been through a lot of stuff to get where they’re at,” Willie Cauley-Stein said. “There’s a reason why they’re successful.”It’s now UK that stands in the way of the Shockers bid for history. Cauley-Stein, in a way only he can, broke down the matchup.”They’re playing with a lot of swag right now but we’re also playing with a lot of swag right now, so the swags are going to intertwine and whoever fights more is going to win the game,” Cauley-Stein said.The outcome, however, will be decided by more than just intertwining swags. Let’s go to the numbers to figure out how using kenpom.com’s advanced stats.When Kentucky is on offenseDefensively, Wichita State conspicuously lacks weaknesses.The Shockers are only average in the turnover department, forcing mistakes on 18.3 percent of possessions (175th nationally), but they rank in the top 11 in both effective field-goal percentage defense (.442) and defensive-rebounding percentage (.740), and a solid 71st in defensive free-throw rate.In other words, the Cats are going to have to earn whatever they get.Barring a remarkable night, UK can’t expect to shoot the lights out on Sunday. The Cats haven’t been a knockdown shooting team — ranking 171st in effective field-goal percentage — all season and shouldn’t expect that to change against a defense that ranks 10th nationally in adjusted efficiency.Where UK likely needs to make its hay is in attacking the basket and the offensive glass. As well as Wichita State has rebounded and protected the rim this season, the Shockers haven’t faced a team with UK’s length and athleticism.Wichita State did defeat Tennessee and its bruising forwards Jarnell Stokes and Jeronne Maymon, but Marshall sees Kentucky in a different light.”These guys are like a total eclipse when you go in there,” Marshall said. “It is a different deal. And they are much more vertical. Cauley-Stein is a vertical guy. Maymon is a wall builder. Jarnell Stokes at 6-7 is talented but not as big as (Dakari) Johnson.”When Kentucky is on defenseWichita State offense is much like its defense: solid in nearly all facets. The Shockers’ 11th-ranked unit is no worse than 66th in any of kenpom.com’s Four Factors. No other team in the country even ranks in the top 100 of all four.If you want to stretch for a weakness, your best bet is 3-point shooting. The Shockers are just 159th nationally in that category at 34.6 percent and have shown a propensity for attempting more than the numbers suggest they should. Wichita State attempts 36.5 percent of its shots from 3, well above the national average of 32.9 percent.For UK’s defense to have success at the level needed to score an upset, the Cats will need to contest first shots well as they have all season in ranking 11th in effective field-goal percentage defense and close out possessions with defensive rebounds. Since Wichita State takes of the ball so well and UK forces turnovers so infrequently (16.3 percent of opponent possessions), the Cats can’t afford to give the Shockers any extra opportunities.Style of playWichita State has the athletes to get out and run, but the Shockers thrive in the half court. They are 241st nationally in adjusted tempo and Kentucky 203rd. This suggests Sunday’s game will be a slow-paced one that requires the young Cats to be tuned in from start to finish.That’s how the Shockers’ second-round game was, which caught the attention of Cal Poly head coach Joe Callero.”The thing about Wichita State is what we want to emulate most in our program is they very, very, very rarely take any plays off,” Callero said. “Their defensive attention and focus and offensive attention and focus is excellent. As good is there is in basketball, college basketball.”As detailed above, both teams play solid defense. Missed shots, as a result, could be plentiful. If that does prove to be the case, Baker’s analysis could be prophetic.”It will be a war on the glass and I think the winner on the glass will win the game,” Baker said.To bring you more expansive coverage, CoachCal.com and Cat
Scratches will be joining forces for the postseason. You can read the
same great stories you are accustomed to from both sites at CoachCal.com
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normal.